2013 NBA Western Conference Quarterfinals Predictions: Oklahoma City vs Houston

(1) Oklahoma City Thunder 60-22

(8) Houston Rockets 45-37

Season Series: Thunder 2-1

November 29: Rockets 98-120 @Thunder

December 30: Thunder 124-94 @Rockets

February 21: Thunder 119-122 @Rockets

The storylines could not be laid out more neatly. It took the final game of the regular season for the plot to thicken, and here it is. From the return of the $80 million beard to a tussle of the second and third-best offenses in the league, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets are expected to light up the playoff skies with fireworks in store.

Racking off at least 119 points in each of their three regular season meetings, the Thunder can expect such production to continue in the playoffs. Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Serge Ibaka are not the type of players who slow down their pace and drop off during the playoffs. If I am Coach Scott Brooks, I will immediately recognize that Omer Asik is Houston’s solitary post presence. Armed with this knowledge, Brooks must instruct Durant and Westbrook to penetrate on every possible possession, get Asik in foul trouble, and force Coach Kevin McHale’s hand at the vastly inexperienced trio of Greg Smith, Donatas Motiejunas, and Thomas Robinson.

The Thunder are also expected to thrive on numerous corner threes coming from Ibaka, whose range has stretched out that far back (35.1% from downtown this season) and Kevin Martin, who would like nothing more than to stick it to his former team. The Thunder can do no wrong in terms of matchups. Insert Kendrick Perkins, the bruiser who will make James Harden work for his shots. Throw in Nick Collison for an added shot of offensive post moves. Unleash Hasheem Thabeet sparingly for the extra length to frustrate Jeremy Lin and Chandler Parsons.

Thabo Sefolosha will have his hands full containing Harden, which is news for the Thunder, because on the other end, Harden will be spending a lot of time fronting Durant, a mismatch in every sense of the word. The Thunder’s scouting report is clear as day: Houston only takes three-pointers and layups. Prevent those two from happening and the Rockets will be left with perimeter jumpers, the equivalent of basketball purgatory for Daryl Morey.

Harden will be the sole indicator of Houston’s feast-or-famine evenings. His game is as bipolar as it gets. He can have 37 points on 16 shots in one game, followed by 17 points on 19 shots in the next. Harden is sure to continue his foul-baiting exploits, but in a physical series, the Thunder can get away with a couple of bumps without any whistles being blown. The job falls on Jeremy Lin, Carlos Delfino, and Patrick Beverley to free themselves up for looks at the top of the key or along the elbow.

The Rockets are virtually playing four-on-five offensively with Asik as a massive offensive liability. Moreover, Houston needs to maximize their possessions and cannot fumble the ball away the way they had during the regular season, having led the league in turnovers with 15.8 a game. In the same light, Houston must force Oklahoma City into errors (5^th, 14.6 per) on the other side of the floor to initiate transition attacks where the former is most efficient.

The Thunder must forcefully impose their “big brother” stance on the Rockets if they want to make quick work of them. None of the Rockets are defensively capable of staying in front of Durant and Westbrook for four quarters. Only a 40-point aberration from The Beard could swing a game in Houston’s favor, nothing more.

Prediction: Thunder in 5

2013 NBA Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Predictions: Miami vs Milwaukee

(1) Miami Heat 66-16

(8) Milwaukee Bucks 38-44

Season Series: Heat 3-1

November 22: Bucks 106-113 @Heat

December 30: Heat 85-104 @Bucks

March 16: Heat 107-94 @Bucks

April 10: Bucks 83-94 @Heat

Metrics, standard or advanced, fail to emphasize the gulf of talent between these two teams.

The Milwaukee Bucks feature incredible firepower in the backcourt, thanks to the troika of Monta Ellis, Brandon Jennings, and J.J. Redick. All three are expected to cannibalize stats in an attempt to get a huge paycheck this summer. It is also important to note that they are all mediocre defenders, and playing them simultaneously is akin to preparing a layup line for the opponents.

Most Bucks fans (at least I believe they have fans) are scratching their heads, wondering how their most viable young asset, Tobias Harris, was sent packing in exchange for Keanu Reeves/Penn Badgley’s doppelganger and a bag of peanuts.

Whatever potency the Bucks backcourt gives in scoring is matched by the frontcourt’s inability to get buckets. Ersan Ilyasova is the lone bright spot, but he roams too far out and camps in the three-point line more frequently than desired, when they already have too much fauna roaming in that vicinity, especially when you throw Mike Dunleavy, Jr. in the mix. At the very least, Ilyasova has ratcheted up his points and rebounds as of late after a subpar November.

Now on to the glaring problem. LARRY SANDERS! (taking the Zach Lowe route here), Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, John Henson, and Samuel Dalembert are no-shows on the offensive end. We can probably give SANDERS! a hall pass since he has been a defensive beast, sending back close to three shots a game into the 10^th row. He serves as a help defender and as a last line of defense, similar to what Chris Andersen did for the Denver Nuggets and does now for the Miami Heat.

It is difficult to imagine SANDERS! effectively closing the door on LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, not that any one man can humanly stop those two in close-range combat. In addition, Chris Bosh will smartly draw him out on pick-and-pop plays, thereby limiting his effectiveness even further.

To exacerbate matters, SANDERS! could find himself on the wrong end of ejection calls (hint: there is no right end) on several instances if his frustration gets pent up and unleashed towards the officials. SANDERS! has to stay in the game; at times he is the only one saving the Bucks on defense (20^th, 100.4 points allowed per).

The worst thing Jim Boylan can attempt is to counter the Heat attack with his own version of small-ball, utilizing Mbah a Moute as a stretch four even though he has no range beyond 12 feet from the basket. Instead, the Bucks should resolve to playing huge lineups, similar to what the Indiana Pacers did against the Heat during the East Semis last season. It won’t be pretty, but having Ekpe Udoh and Gustavo Ayon could be the Bucks’ best chance (most likely it won’t, but desperate times call for such actions).

From the Heat’s perspective, the game plan is to stop Jennings and Ellis, the latter whom they have been very successful at limiting during the regular season at a paltry 9.5ppg. Those two Bucks account for nearly 40% of the team’s total points (12^th, 98.9ppg), and if the Heatles chop their heads off and mount them on the wall, that will ultimately spell the Bucks’ doom.

The Bucks stop here. The coup de grace will come swiftly.

Prediction: Heat in 4

2013 NBA Western Conference Quarterfinals Predictions: San Antonio vs LA Lakers

(2) San Antonio Spurs 58-24

(7) Los Angeles Lakers 45-37

Season Series: Spurs 2-1

November 14: Spurs 84-82 @Lakers

January 10: Lakers 105-108 @Spurs

April 15: Spurs 86-91 @Lakers

“Kobe is watching us at home. Dr. Buss is watching us up high. Let’s let it out tonight. Everything we got. Everything!” –Dwight Howard

The Los Angeles Lakers have gone through several season restarts. They mourned over Dr. Jerry Buss, the architect of Showtime. They lost Howard, Pau Gasol, Jordan Hill, Steve Nash, and Kobe Bryant at various points of the season. They went through two coaching changes. Phil Jackson came in the building and made Lakers fans swoon at the false hopes of a comeback. Mike D’Antoni adjusts uncomfortably in his hot seat. Though the Lakers have renewed his contract, job security comes at a high price.

Now, D’Antoni attempts to climb his personal Mt. Everest, better known to the public as the San Antonio Spurs.

 

Of course, annexing the summit rests on D’Antoni’s prized playmaker. How healthy will Nash be if and when he returns in this series? All the attention falls on him and how he gets Howard and Gasol involved on pick-and-rolls, keeping the spacing manageable even as the Spurs defense sees the play developing from the moment he brings the ball upcourt. The challenge falls on two other Lakers to step up: Metta World Peace and Jodie Meeks.

World Peace has experienced a fluke season, with his numbers spiking up slightly after it started taking an egregious downturn since he brought the Wheaties box along after Game 7 of the 2010 Finals. He has taken the second-most threes per game in his career this season (5.5 attempts), and with the return of Nash, he will be tasked to convert on many more kickouts.

The same goes with Meeks, who has struggled since starting in place of Bryant. He has gone 5/21 in his last two games and will need to find a way to bury jumpers because he will get a lot of open looks when the Spurs collapse on LA’s frontcourt.

Other Lakers will be under unfair (but necessary) scrutiny. Steve Blake had back-to-back breakout games, one against these same Spurs, and should be expected to handle defensive chores on Tony Parker, who has not yet fully recovered from his sprained ankle. Antawn Jamison, who has bounced back and forth between surprise X-factor and frustrating momentum-killer, will lick his chops at the sight of guarding Tim Duncan for the first time in the postseason.

There have been a lot of murmurs surrounding the Spurs as they faltered down the stretch with a 12-10 record to wrap up the regular season. Besides Parker, the absence of Manu Ginobili (strained hamstring) has carved up the guard rotation, forcing extended minutes from the likes of Gary Neal and Patty Mills. Boris Diaw also missed time with his own injury woes (spine cyst).

Worse, internal strife was present in a normally professional locker room, as Stephen Jackson was given the boot for complaining about a decreased role on the team. Of course Jackson being buried in the rotation was bound to happen. Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green have both submitted reliable downtown shooting, a large reason why the Spurs continued to be a threat from downtown (4^th, 37.6%). The Spurs have given these two youngsters the confidence that they are competent pieces made elite by the system Coach Gregg Popovich runs.

However, Ginobili’s absence is a key loss for the Spurs, because the shooting guard position was supposed to be where they would dominate against the Lakers but now that advantage has been somewhat neutralized. As long as Ginobili is playing hurt, rotation guys like Cory Joseph and Nando De Colo will be forced to produce beyond their limitations. This is definitely a knock on those two, who have gotten minutes but have not yet played up to their billing.

Another concern is the Spurs’ very shallow frontcourt. Behind Duncan, there is DeJuan Blair and Aron Baynes. Matt Bonner as a power forward among the potpourri of Lakers big men could turn into rebounding suicide, as he only averages 1.9rpg. Suddenly, employing Smite-a-Dwight may not be as optimal for the Spurs as it initially sounds. There are times when the Spurs rotation will resemble that of the Austin Toros.

The reason that the Spurs still have the upper hand is not because of Tracy McGrady. McGrady will play a bit role in this series and might not even see significant minutes in the first couple of games. It will be the Spurs’ ball movement that will play a huge factor. The fluidity of the offense is hinged on quick inside-out passing (1^st in assists, 25.1 per), making it difficult to close out on a single shooter or post up player.

In a series of banged-up players, the team that has the best player available should be able to lead his team to victory. That player is Duncan, who is having a renaissance year as his 37^th birthday fast approaches. Watch him have a slugfest with not only Howard and Gasol, but also with Father Time as he hopes to add to his collection of vintage performances.

Prediction: Spurs in 6

2013 NBA Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Predictions: Indiana vs Atlanta

(3) Indiana Pacers 49-32*

(6) Atlanta Hawks 44-38

Season Series: Tied 2-2

November 8: Pacers 86-89 @Hawks

December 30: Pacers 100-109 @Hawks

February 6: Hawks 103-114 @Pacers

March 26: Hawks 94-100 @Pacers

Lance Stephenson vs DeShawn Stevenson.

The matchup above reflects the overall temperament of this series. Some fake tough guys, studio gangsters, and players only seeing action due to injuries, etc. These two teams have been so under the radar that this will be the forgotten series when the 2013 playoffs are casually discussed five years from now. It is a shame that such an impression lingers, as these two teams fought vicious battles from 1994-1996, from Dale Davis to Stacey Augmon to Vern Fleming to Daron Oshay Blaylock (yup, Mookie).

Thanks, Basketball Reference. Now, on to the snoozefest.

Indiana has been the East’s darkhorse all season, playing the anti-Heat role. They win through sheer intimidation, crashing the boards, and wiping the glass clean. Though none of their players average double figures in rebounding, it has been a duty shared among Roy Hibbert (8.3), David West (7.7), and surprisingly, Paul George (7.6), who is widely known for his defense, three, and athletic ability. With Tyler Hansbrough and Ian Mahinmi coming off the bench, the Pacers will make life very difficult for the likes of Al Horford and Josh Smith.

Defense will be the calling card of the Pacers, who finished second in points allowed (90.7) thanks to that enormous lineup. It will be interesting how the Hawks try to carve up the defense, as Indiana is not a team that goes small-ball. They force opponents to keep up with their size rather than adjust the other way around.

However, the Pacers have experienced serious slippage, barely going over .500 in the last 20 games of the season, which ultimately costed them homecourt advantage through the East Semis. Coach Frank Vogel has insisted that the team is still establishing its identity as a power-post team and this will be essential as they establish superiority over the Hawks.

In order to achieve this, the guy finding the bigs will need to be 100%. George Hill, who is battling hip and groin injuries will have to come out and face Atlanta’s plethora of point guards. If not, the onus falls on D.J. Augustin, who has vastly underperformed since his breakout season with the Charlotte Bobcats (Good stats/bad team alert!).

For the Hawks, it will be difficult to gauge the two regular season wins against the Pacers, as Lou Williams saw action in both of those games. Without him, the Hawks have given Kyle Korver a more significant role as the team’s fourth option and are squeezing out every ounce of talent from sophomore Shelvin Mack and rookie John Jenkins. Jeff Teague, who was once upon a time not even worth a footnote on the Hawks rotation, is now suddenly expected to carry the team as its bonafide third banana.

On Smith’s part, he knows that this will be the series that general managers will be zeroing in for his next hefty payday. Together with Teague, the two of them form one of the better passing duos in the league, a huge reason behind Atlanta’s finishing among the league leaders in the assists department (2^nd, 24.5 per). If Smith turns into the guy with decent shot selection (big if), prevents George from morphing into Reggie Miller Lite (another big if), and boxes out Indiana’s frontline successfully (so many conditionals), he might just dupe a general manager into paying him cash that would make Rashard Lewis blush.

Given those details, the Hawks have too many holes that the Pacers can and will exploit. Atlanta cannot get to the free throw line enough (27^th in attempts, 19.7 per), and when they do, they cannot get the ball in the basket (26^th, 71.5%). This is an essential shortcoming because Atlanta’s only chance is to get Indian’s frontcourt in foul trouble. To compound matters, Atlanta plays the fifth-worst free throw defense (76.3%), something that they cannot control but needs to be mentioned nonetheless. They get beat on the boards (-2.8) as well. How Larry Drew got the team 44 victories is a minor miracle in itself.

It is a shame that Danny Granger and Williams will be on the sidelines when the series tips off. But then again, neither player would have made the series TNT-worthy.

Prediction: Pacers in 4

*The Indiana Pacers only played 81 regular season games.

2013 NBA Western Conference Quarterfinals Predictions: LA Clippers vs Memphis

(4) Los Angeles Clippers 56-26

(5) Memphis Grizzlies 56-26

Season Series: Clippers 3-1

November 1: Grizzlies 92-101 @Clippers

January 15: Clippers 99-73 @Grizzlies

March 14: Grizzlies 96-85 @Clippers

April 14: Clippers 91-87 @Grizzlies

There are few best-of-seven series that are so evenly matched that I am already typing down paragraphs without a clear picture of who has the decisive edge. Usually, after careful consideration, there is already a formulated group of arguments that tilt the favor one way or another. Not in this instance. The Clippers and Grizzlies both have strong cases for advancing into the West Semis.

The Clippers have been a bipolar team. This squad raced out to a 17-game winning streak spanning through the month of December. Jamal Crawford saw the effects of offseason practice, busting out a November for the ages. Clips Nation saw “A Tribe Called Bench” consisting of Eric Bledsoe and Lamar Odom provide solid contributions. 

Then the spotlight shifted to DeAndre Jordan, who committed first-degree homicide against a certain Detroit Piston. And somewhere in there, a point god named Chris Paul quietly submitted numbers that emphasized his All-Star Game MVP performance, with 16.9ppg, 3.7rpg, 9.7apg, and 2.4spg in 70 appearances.

However, the Clippers have been Jekyll and Hyde. Grant Hill saw career-low numbers across the board in what looks to be his farewell tour. He has been so invisible that he is the only Clipper producing negative Win Shares. Chauncey Billups, touted to finally see playing time alongside Paul, has been severely hampered by a cascade of injuries, suiting up in only 22 games and watching Willie Green handle a significant chunk of shooting guard duties. Caron Butler, while healthy, has also seen a gradual reduction in points, nowhere near his averages posted during his stints with the Washington Wizards and Dallas Mavericks.

Even Blake Griffin took a noticeable step back, averaging four less points and rebounds as compared to his unanimous Rookie of the Year Award season. Another cause of concern was their disinterested 17-17 slump through February and March. Had it not been for a seven-game recovery to end the season, they would not even hold homecourt in the first round. So which Clippers team shows up in the postseason?

The Clippers finished with a much higher winning percentage from last year (60.6% to 68.2%) but the team’s depth chart does not look as lethal. When these two teams faced each other this time last year, the Clippers trotted out competent relievers in Nick Young, Mo Williams, Reggie Evans, and Kenyon Martin. This year, the guy picking up that slack is Ryan Hollins who is worth six fouls and is a technical time bomb waiting to happen.

Rotations ideally shrink in the postseason, but that was the Clippers’ trump card against a Memphis team that finds ways to drain the Fatigue bar from their opponents as quickly as possible. That is a distinct advantage the Clippers gave up.

For the Grit N Grind Grizzlies, one of the many motivations driving this team is vindication. At the back of their heads, they want to justify once and for all that they are a better team moving forward sans Rudy Gay. Prior to the blockbuster trade, they were 29-15. Since the trade was executed? 27-11. The sample size of the regular season is still inconclusive. The only result that matters is advancing past the Clippers in Round 1, something they fell a game short of doing last spring.

The Grizzlies live up to their slogan. They grind opponents into the league’s slowest pace. They allow the least number of points (89.3ppg) to account for their own scoring deficiencies (27^th, 93.4ppg). Mike Conley has quietly risen his stock as as a bargain chip. Many raised eyebrows when the Grizzlies inked him to a $40 million multi-year deal. The man has earned every penny of his contract. Together with Tony Allen, they form one of the most unforgiving backcourt units, combining for nearly four steals a game.

While Marc Gasol has been making a strong case for Defensive Player of the Year, a vital piece to the puzzle has been Tayshaun Prince, who has proven to the world that a player’s career can be revived when placed in the right circumstances. The acquisition of Prince gives the team its first elite wing defender since Shane Battier and it allows Memphis’ offensive hierarchy to fall into place, forming a trio of options: Gasol in the low post, Zach Randolph in the high post, and Conley hovering along the perimeter.

The man who has the most to lose in this series is Vinny Del Negro. If he fails to get the Clippers out of the first round, it is quite certain that he gets the ax. The man who may have the biggest impact without a seeing a minute on the floor is John Hollinger. It is time to see the full utilization of the Player Efficiency Rating (PER).

The matchups are a wash. But it may be a case of the Clippers peaking too soon.

Sometimes it’s all about the timing.

Prediction: Grizzlies in 6

2013 NBA Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Predictions: Brooklyn vs Chicago

(4) Brooklyn Nets 49-33

(5) Chicago Bulls 45-37

Season Series: Bulls 3-1

December 16: Nets 82-83 @Bulls

February 2: Bulls 89-93 @Nets

March 3: Nets 85-96 @Bulls

April 4: Bulls 92-90 @Nets

The underachievers and overachievers clash in a potentially underwhelming series overshadowed by a superstar’s possible comeback.

Despite winning 49 games, the Brooklyn Nets reek of a disinterested team that coasted through the regular season, hoping to skip the formalities and just get things over with once the postseason fireworks began. No other player has personified this ho-hum nonchalance more than Gerald Wallace. Crash saw his numbers across the board plummet, a mystery since he played relatively healthy (note: concussion-free) this season.

The enigma of Wallace has typified that of the Nets’; on some nights, they can pulverize the Oklahoma City Thunder by 17, yet on other nights the San Antonio Spurs would obliterate this motley by 31. However, the good outweighs the bad. The Nets saw encouraging signs that made them at one point challenge the New York Knicks for the second spot in the East. This was most evident when P.J. Carlesimo was replaced Avery Johnson, who strained ties with Deron Williams.

In addition, Joe Johnson has made a very smooth transition from being Atlanta’s alpha Hawk to being the third option and premiere closer of this Nets team. Although he will never truly shed his overpaid label (not his own doing but a repercussion of Atlanta’s inept management), Johnson has delivered several buzzer-beaters and continued to display his clutch gene. He has been the complementary shooting guard that Williams never had in his first seven seasons in the league.

Brooklyn’s power forward platter will be serving different specialties. Former knucklehead Andray Blatche has solidified his role as the scoring punch off the bench, while Reggie Evans has more than compensated for Kris Humphries with his rebounding acumen, even getting a tooth knocked out in one of his forays under the basket. Brooklyn will also have additional ammunition from their bench mob. C.J Watson and Keith Bogans both have scores to settle against their former team and can spark mini-runs with their downtown shooting.

At the center of it all is Brook Lopez. The 7’0” giant is expected to have his way against Joakim Noah, who missed 12 of the last 15 games and is still recovering from plantar fasciitis. Lopez is no longer just a finisher with his back to the basket. The Nets frequently employ him on a high pick-and-roll and can finish strong, taking one power dribble to build momentum as he drives to the basket like a burly guard. Doing such a move with Williams in tandem will be devastating as the Bulls have no answer at both point guard and center that are large enough to stay in front of these two.

The Bulls have clambered onto the fifth seed by sheer will. What was expected to be a game of musical chairs filling out Derrick Rose’s size 13 Adidas kicks has turned out better than hoped for. Remember, preseason prognosticators pegged this team finishing with 30-something wins and Marquis Teague holding down the ballhandling duties. Instead, Nate Robinson and Kirk Hinrich have stepped up commendably.

Luol Deng is the forgotten man but he is capable of becoming the best player from both teams at key stretches. Once again, the burden of minutes management will fall squarely on Tom Thibodeau’s shoulders and he will need to keep Deng fresh especially in the deep end of the fourth quarter.

 

In order for the Bulls to have a legitimate shot at knocking down the Nets, Carlos Boozer has to play at par to the exorbitant contract handed to him three years ago. He has shown that he is up to the task, averaging 21.3ppg and 10.7rpg in his three games against Brooklyn. Moreover, defensive stalwart Jimmy Butler must be relentless on the defensive end, chasing Johnson all over the court and preventing any easy looks.

Watching these two teams play will be a test of patience and character. The Nets employ the third-slowest pace while the Bulls own the fourth-slowest in the league. It will be the equivalent of watching a 48-minute Phantom clip... in slow motion.

Prediction: Nets in 6

2013 NBA Western Conference Quarterfinals Predictions: Denver vs Golden State

(3) Denver Nuggets 57-25

(6) Golden State Warriors 47-35

Season Series: Nuggets 3-1

November 11: Nuggets 107-101 @Warriors

November 24: Warriors 91-102 @Nuggets

November 30: Nuggets 105-106 @Warriors

January 14: Warriors 105-116 @Nuggets

38-3.

That is the record of the Denver Nuggets in the confines of Pepsi Center, fast becoming the arena opposing teams dread to visit. The Nuggets have been a model of consistency throughout the regular season. Not even the injury of Danilo Gallinari could derail these miners. According to Bradford Doolittle of ESPN, the Nuggets’ win total this season simulated without Gallinari would drop the Nuggets from 56.4 down to... 56.4.

That figure virtually presumes that Gallinari’s absence is negligible. He averaged 20.5ppg and 7.8rpg in four games against the Warriors, which is quite substantial, but the Nuggets were constructed with so much depth that his loss can be compensated for. Props to General Manager Masai Ujiri.

The backbone of that mind-boggling constancy can also be credited to George Karl, who has my unofficial vote for Coach of the Year. He carries the distinction of leading a team with zero All-Stars (repeat, zero) with the best offense in the league at 106.1ppg, highlighted by their 15-game winning streak. Thanks to their absurd pace, they are also among the league leaders in rebounds (2^nd, 45 per), steals (2^nd, 9.3 per), blocks (3^rd, 6.5 per), and assists (3^rd, 24.4 per).

This elite offense cannot be associated solely with Ty Lawson, Denver’s de facto leader. Andre Iguodala and Andre Miller have meshed beautifully, harkening back to their days together in Philadelphia. Wilson Chandler has seen an uptick in his numbers after a poorly-timed return from China late last season. Even Evan Fournier has been a treasure find with a solid first half of April.

But where does Denver get that extra fizz when they play at Pepsi Center? The answer lies in getting the highest percentage looks as often as possible. Denver averages 58 points in the paint, tops in the league, a collective effort by Iguodala, Kenneth Faried, Kosta Koufus, and JaVale McGee. Those 58 points give them a +19.7 advantage over Golden State.

The Golden State Warriors need no introduction on their style of play. Shoot threes. Shoot more threes. And when the defense collapses, David Lee or Carl Landry will be waiting inside. With so many nationally-televised games, they have become a League Pass go-to, as watching Stephen Curry (272 threes, single season record) and Klay Thompson (211) connect on 483 combined treys has been an engaging sight.

Mark Jackson has given his point guard the reigns to run the offense and unleash from downtown at will, if need be. Lee, the only All-Star in this series (!!!) who is not known for his defensive prowess, will have a tough task ahead of him containing Denver’s huge frontline.

Harrison Barnes will be going toe-to-toe with Andre Iguodala in one of the most riveting first round matchups among wing players. With one monster dunk, these two highflyers can set the tone and shift momentum. How the rookie stacks up against the veteran will indicate how much of a fighting chance these Warriors have out there. Jarrett Jack will be the Warriors main source of bench production. His best games of the season came in those tight-fit sleeves, so it will be a good idea to get the Golden Sleeves Warriors out to play.

The odds are stacked against the Warriors because their four best players are postseason virgins. Even Andrew Bogut’s lone playoff appearance came all the way back during his rookie season in 2005-2006, a lifetime ago. How will Curry and Thompson mentally react and improvise when their shots stop falling? Can Lee remain effective in spite of Faried’s physicality?

Both teams will be initiating transition plays back and forth on every ensuing possession. While the other seven first-round matchups will be grinding it out defensively, this might be the only series where both teams top the century mark each game.

Altitude matters. In the postseason, riding the elevator screens won’t be enough to get the Warriors mile-high.

Prediction: Nuggets in 7

2013 NBA Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Predictions: New York vs Boston

(2) New York Knicks 54-28
(7) Boston Celtics 41-40*

Season Series: Knicks 3-1

January 8: Celtics 102-96 @Knicks

January 25: Knicks 89-86 @Celtics

March 27: Knicks 100-85 @Celtics

April 1: Celtics 89-108 @Knicks

Perhaps none of the 16 teams enters the postseason with as much emotional baggage as the Boston Celtics. Weighed down by the recent bombings of the Boston Marathon and forced to forego their penultimate regular season game against the Indiana Pacers, the Celtics are battered and bruised as they travel to the Big Apple as consensus underdogs in the first round. The Honey Nut Cheerios series is underway.

Though the New York Knicks have made it to the playoffs for the third straight season, this actually marks the first time that they have homecourt advantage since 2000-2001. The Knicks started out of the gates strong, crested midway, and built a 13-game winning streak right before the regular season wound down. 

Carmelo Anthony is at the forefront of the Knicks renaissance. Once upon a time, there was an uncertainty of whether he or Amar’e Stoudemire would be the face of this franchise. Thanks to how Mike Woodson has helped Anthony redefine himself in a combo forward role, there are no more doubts left.  With a blistering tear spanning through late March and early April, Anthony wrestled away the scoring title from Kevin Durant with a 28.7ppg average and he should receive numerous third-place votes on the MVP ballot.

The Knicks have lived and died on three-point shooting, tied for the league leaders in attempts with 28.9 per game and hold the fifth-best rate at 37.6%. The heavy reliance on threes is directly coming from the fact that they play the fifth-slowest pace in the league and demand finding the open man in the halfcourt sets. Unless Anthony is setting himself an isolation play, the ball finds its way into the hands of an eager J.R. Smith, Raymond Felton, Jason Kidd, or Steve Novak.

As the Knicks total the league’s third-fewest assists with only 19.3 per game, the Celtics can hope that the Knicks offense stagnates to a grinding halt. However, this does not mean they will let Anthony go off for 50 points by himself anytime he wants.

Take note of Earl Barron, the Knicks’ late acquisition right before the end of the regular season who played in the regular season finale. The Knicks hope that he can provide additional problems for a very thin Celtics frontline. Second-year stud Iman Shumpert will be expected to provide heady defense against the likes of no-conscience chuckers Jordan Crawford and Jason Terry.

The Celtics’ dropoff has been very evident on the defensive end. What was once a perennial top five lockdown system has regressed to 12^th this season as they allow a charitable 96.7ppg. Beantown’s hopes are pinned on fourth-year pro Jeff Green, who is gradually taking over the alpha dog role away from Paul Pierce. Since the All-Star festivities wrapped up, Green has been a bargain for the Celtics, averaging 17.3ppg on 43.9% three-point shooting to go with five rebounds. His aggressiveness is no longer a glaring deficiency as he is not shy to bury midrange jumpers and take it strong to the hole.

Finally, all eyes will be on Kevin Garnett and his inflamed left ankle. He should be ready to go for Game 1 but how much pressure he puts on that left leg of his will determine his effectiveness. As always, he will be tasked to shuffle between the four and five spots, and has to pick up for the slack that Brandon Bass and Shavlik Randolph leave behind.

Anthony and the Knicks should go on to dispatch the worn-down Celtics in a heated series that will see a flavor of physicality reminiscent of the 90s, especially when Garnett and Kenyon Martin start yapping at each other. As Boston recovers from a devastating explosion, the Celtics roster may headed for an implosion as the Danny Ainge and Doc Rivers head towards an offseason full of question marks.

Prediction: Knicks in 6

*The Celtics only played 81 regular season games.

BIG things are coming to Manila

BIG THINGS ARE COMING. twitter.com/MOAArena/statu…
— MALL OF ASIA ARENA (@MOAArena) February 14, 2013

The NBA could find itself playing a game on Philippine soil for the first time in league history as the Mall of Asia Arena Twitter handle hinted a teaser that launched a thousand tweets. While negotiations are still ongoing, it could be the Houston Rockets and Indiana Pacers facing off. The question is whether the game will be that of a preseason or part of the 82-game stretch.

After Smart sponsored a back-to-back exhibition extravaganza in 2011, some questions are begging to be asked. How much are you willing to watch a NBA game live? Would you watch two random teams the NBA brings over? What would be the reception if it were the Phoenix Suns and the Detroit Pistons that were arriving to Manila? Super Cool Beas.

Here are five "other" matchups I would spend money to see. I use the word "other" in the loose context that it is a given for the MOA Arena to be sold out and filled with scalpers outside if any of the games included the following teams: Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers, Oklahoma City Thunder, Miami Heat, New York Knicks, Chicago Bulls, and Boston Celtics.

Side note: The San Antonio Spurs were a late scratch in this entry as Gregg Popovich will not let Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker fly all the way to the Philippines, incurring another $250,000 fine in the process.

5. Denver Nuggets vs. Philadelphia 76ers

A Nuggets-Sixers tiff carries a lot of implications. See JaVale "Pierre" McGee plank some more. Nick Young will be out there hoisting contested threes and dishing out his Swaggy P flavor. Andre Iguodala will have another crack at his former team. And this might turn out to be Andrew Bynum's much-anticipated debut. The Philippine Customs should tax him heavily for shipping that afro-dreadlock-cornrows into the country.

4. Seattle Supersonics vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Isaiah Thomas and the rest of the crew look like they will be sporting new tank top designs in 2013-2014 with the eventual return back to Starbucks HQ. What better way to reacquaint with the Sonics than with a backcourt mix-up against probably the two best pick-up ballers in Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis. It would not be surprising if those two will be spotted at a barangay liga at witching hour when the floodlights of MOA Arena have long been switched off. 

3. Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Portland Trail Blazers

The last two Rookies of the Year awardees go at it. Yes, I have already proclaimed Damian Lillard as this year's winner. Problem? The game might be too contrived towards the two point guards because the gulf in talent is large. Portland is a Western playoff bubble team while Cleveland was aiming for Nerlens Noel before the injury bug bit him. The Cavaliers' Anderson Varejao may still be sidelined with a blood clot in his lungs while the Blazers are in full force, bolstered by LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum, Wesley Matthews, and J.J. Hickson. It won't exactly be Thrilla in Manila.

2. Brooklyn Nets vs. Toronto Raptors

Dunks, slams and more jams. The trio of Terrence Ross, DeMar DeRozan, and Rudy Gay will give Filipino fans a lot of standing ovations for this game. It will serve as a stark contrast to the supposedly cool but actually boring Nets, who are being carried on the back of Brook Lopez. Appearances from all-offense Andray Blatche and all-defense Reggie Evans will be nothing short of hysterical. If and when the Nets do come in town, they should retrofit the hardwood with the same aesthetically-pleasingly herringbone pattern that they use in Barclays Center.

1. Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Washington Wizards

An advertisement featuring Ricky Rubio and John Wall deserves an Adidas billboard along EDSA Guadalupe. They have earned their stripes. This games is the most evenly-matched among the five slated suggestions under the premise that Kevin Love is not a lock to stay with the Wolves next seaon. It would mark the return of Derrick Williams to Manila and put the spotlight on emerging talents such as Bradley Beal and Alexey Shved. Jordan Crawford also looks to stamp his "greatest shooter ever" claim (not going to happen).

If someone posts a YouTube clip of Jan Vesely eating balut, that would be his third-best video on the Internet, only behind this and this.

2013 NBA All-Star Weekend blasts off in Houston

Constellations will gather in Toyota Center for the second time in seven years as the 2013 NBA All-Star Weekend blasts off in Houston, Texas on February 15-17 (February 16-18 Manila time). When the stars aligned back in 2006, Nate Robinson edged Andre Iguodala in a controversial Dunk Off while Dirk Nowitzki became the tallest player to win the Three-Point Contest and he still holds that feat today. Will James Harden and Jeremy Lin enjoy home court advantage? Let us look into the itinerary:

February 15 (Friday)

Sprint Celebrity Game:

There are going to be a number of former pros who will see action, including Geico's Dikembe Mutombo, DeMarcus Cousins' BFF Sean Elliott, and Karate Expert Bruce Bowen.

However, reading down the paragraph, I came across the name Usain Bolt. Rumors are swirling that his inclusion will shorten the whole game to 9.63 seconds. Also, Bolt might not be too keen on passing the ball. Exhibit A. He is totally going to be the Kobe Bryant of this game. Bummer.

BBVA Rising Stars Challenge:

Shaquille O'Neal drafted Damian Lillard and Kyrie Irving as his first two picks, while many raised eyebrows on Charles Barkley's first selection of Anthony Davis, even for a no-bearing midseason exhibition. Of course, this is not the first time Barkley has made aquestionable first pick.

Team Shaq looks to run Team Chuck out of the gate with Harrison Barnes, Kemba Walker, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Despite the absence of Andre Drummond, the balance of talent is so skewed towards Team Shaq. On the other end of the floor, look for Ricky Rubio to find Kenneth Faried on a couple of alley-oop connections. March Madness will feel like it arrived early this year. As fans will have a say on who takes home MVP honors, it will be difficult to see anyone see aside from Uncle Drew showing the young bloods how to play the game.

Prediction: Team Shaq - MVP: Kyrie Irving

February 16 (Saturday)

State Farm All-Star Saturday Night will have a few tweaks as conference unity will be the theme. That is like asking the Atlanta Hawks to root for the team who wins the Eastern Conference Title, which is a lame concept in all honesty.

Here is the scenario: Dwyane Wade will captain the East while Chris Paul does so for the West. The best participant from each conference in the elimination round proceeds to the final round. So what this essentially means is that the possibility of a James White vs. Gerald Green Slam Dunk showdown is moot. Nada.

Sears Shooting Stars:

This event will not seem to die or fade into oblivion, even though Haier stopped sponsoring it this year. Team Westbrook is the sexy pick in this unsexy contest. The trio of Russell Westbrook, Robert Horry, and Maya Moore easily screams "WINNING" a la Charlie Sheen.

Westbrook and Horry's long-range exploits are well-documented, so let's focus on Moore instead. She has just completed hersecond season with the Minnesota Lynx and is shooting a career 38% from downtown. Last time I checked, that's much better than James Harden and Chris Bosh. It might be better than Brook Lopez as well, but I am not exactly sure what N/A translates to.

Prediction: Team Westbrook

Taco Bell Skills Challenge:

This is probably the contest that has garnered the most suggestions for improvements to no avail. Hey, how about placing a real defender to guard these players? There were talks that Jamal Crawford would be in this contest, but he might just keep shaking-and-baking the stationary defenders hoping that it would topple over after 20 seconds of ankle-breaking. Alas.

So the field includes defending champion Tony Parker, flanked by Jeremy Lin and Damian Lillard. On the other corner, there are three under-the-radar players looking to garner attention in Jrue Holiday, Jeff Teague, and Brandon Knight. As Knight will be the underdog among all underdogs, he should come in with no pressure whatsoever and could sweep the rug in a contest filled with so much randomness and variability.

Prediction: Brandon Knight

Foot Locker Three-Point Contest:

With no Kevin Love around to defend his crown, this year's shootout turns to star power and volume shooters. Looking down this list, there is not one guy who would not be a viable option to take a crucial shot with the game on the line. Even Bonner, who may be the least remarkable one among the six, got in through the power of social media and sheer online campaigning. Stephen Curry shoots the highest clip (44.8%). Ryan Anderson takes the most tries (7.5 attempts per game). Paul George recently eclipsed Reggie Miller's three-point makes in a single game. Irving has developed a solid reputation as a closer. And Steve Novak? Novak's beautiful release is second only to Ray Allen's.

In a contest that emphasizes quantity and stamina in a span of 60-second bursts, Anderson might have an ever-so-slight advantage.

Prediction: Ryan Anderson

Sprite Slam Dunk:

Cupcakes? Capes? Tron lights? Blindfolds? Stickers? Teddy Bears? Kevin Hart?

Please, enough with the props.

Bring back old school high-flying.

Prediction: James White

***

February 17 (Sunday)

62nd NBA All-Star Game:

The spectacle culminates on Sunday. With injuries left and right, Rajon Rondo (right ACL) and Joakim Noah (plantar fasciitis) will be no-shows in the East, while Blake Griffin's playing time with the West will be moderated because of his hamstring injury. This year's All-Star Game will be dictated by the wings.

While the spotlight is on Bryant, Kevin Durant, and LeBron James to take home the MVP plum, don't sleep on Carmelo Anthony. New York's finest will have a lot of scoring opportunities and with the scant defense played, he can pile up 30 points if he gets hot in a hurry during the crucial moments of the game. It will be the perfect opportunity for him to remind people that the Knicks are still within a whiff of the top spot in the Eastern race.

Prediction: East - MVP: Carmelo Anthony

Photos: NBA.com